During the project initiation stage (before first release):
- Key success factors were:
- Leadership by doing (working more hours).
- Clear vision.
- Well-articulated goals.
- Minor correlations with success were:
- Project marketing.
- Knowledge continuity: Someone on the project since its early days.
- Specific and general reciprocity.
- Key success factors were:
- Utility as represented by downloads.
- Slightly larger development teams and attracting outside communities, although development team still can be small (2 – 3 people).
- Clear project vision and goals established and articulated.
- Leadership by doing.
- Open Source Software experience.
- Marketing of the project.
- Minor correlations with success were:
- Task granularity: Projects have small tasks ready for people who only can contribute small bits of time.
- Financial backing.
- A diversity of motivations from within the team.
- More formalized institutions exist in a relatively small number of cases, but these tend to fall in the successful growth class.
Charlie has kindly shared raw data from the study, which I've extracted out into graphs:
As you can see, most projects are abandoned. Of those that are successful, the vast majority of them are retain a small, sustained team. However, attracting external developers greatly increases your chance of long term success. (A project which attracts 10 or more developers is a 1 in 100 project).
Success rate of Open Source Projects (source data) |
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